Chaos and Crime

CHAOS THEORY.  The basic idea in Chaos theory is that there are non-linear transformations in the behavior of complex systems.  These transformations take one from tightly ordered behavior toward deep chaos.  For our purposes here, we will chart five dynamic states in that journey from order to disorder.

A Bifurcation Map

1 = red  2 = green  3= dark green 4=blue      5 =RED   

Region 1 of the Bifurcation Map above exhibits the very regular behavior that Newton used to ground modern science and its quest for certainty, prediction and control.  And for the past three hundred odd years, the assumption has been that all normal physical, biological and social systems tend to a given ordered state...i.e., to region one.

The null hypothesis has been failure to find certainty comes from intervening variables, observer error, faulty equipment, bad theory or just plain chance.

The new sciences of Chaos and Complexity point out that most systems move from ordered to disordered states with small changes in a given variable.  It does not take new variables, outside agitators, unwashed migrants or psychological trauma to produce large changes in crime rates, it takes but a small change in existing practices to explode into 'crime waves.'

Region 3 is the region of choice for most dynamical systems if they are too survive.  Some mix of order and disorder has great advantage over systems confined to Regions 1 or 2.   Systems which move to Regions 4 and 5 find too much uncertainty for planning and purpose.  This fact has implications for a theory of social control, below.

CRIME AND CHAOS.  If we consider any given form of crime, say corporate crime, Chaos theory would suggest we look for small changes in ordinary settings of variables inside the corporation or small changes in settings of key variables outside the system. A small change in an external variable, say tax rates, may trigger great increases in corporate crime.  Rather than cut management salaries or dividends, C.E.O's may engage in a variety of criminal practices to cut costs and increase profits in order to attract capital. 

A small change in market demand may explode into a general depression.  Companies lay off workers in increasing numbers.  A small change in unemployment rates may kick in a large change in both property crimes and domestic violence.

A small decrease in the income of a physician may result in a new and illegal dynamics in his/her medical practice; over-prescribing, unnecessary operations, tax evasion, over-billing and such may develop into a way of life.  Physicians may, at age 40 or so, realize that their retirement plans require a much larger investment portfolio than they can manage with an ethical practice.

White collar crimes may increase with small changes in the budget of a manager.  An accountant or clerk may begin to embezzle in order to met a small but unmanageable increase in taxes, mortgage interest, college tuition or child care.

Political crime including warfare may explode into unmanageable proportions with small increases in domestic unrest inside a country or small changes in costs of raw materials from a supplier country.  Price and availability of oil is the variables of choice in International crime waves today.

Crime, thus, increases or decreases non-linearly when new uncertainties emerge inside or outside the social space of the person, firm or society concerned.

CHAOS THEORY AND SOCIAL CONTROL THEORY Chaos theory carries many implications for strategies of social control.  First, most natural and social dynamics are nonlinear.   Second, small changes can produce large, untrackable changes in the dynamics of natural and social systems.

As the dynamics of a system, population, or society run toward deep chaos, prediction, planning and control become ever more difficult.  Uncertainty become the rule of the day for persons, firms, industries and line.

Those who subscribe too much to control theory are bound to be disappointed.  More police, more prisons, more surveillance and more draconian forms of punishment simply don't work under the conditions found in Regions 4 and 5 of the Bifurcation Map above.

There is, thus, a most profound lesson for social control theory. If we want to limit human behavior to a given attractor or to some limited set of attractors, then we must look to the key parameters. It is no good telling people to behave one way if critical variables make it difficult to comply. If we want good health, we must consider control of the parameters which produce ill health. It is no good telling people to see their doctors regularly if they live amid poverty, pollution or live in a society which promotes the use of tobacco, alcohol or violence.

There is one characteristic of Non-linear Systems most interesting to social peace. Multiple systems with fractal geometries can occupy the same region in either real time/space or phase space. If they maintain their boundaries, they are called Solitons.    That diverse cultures with diverse norms could live in the time space continua is very strange to those of us who think that all Americans should be governed by the same laws and all should comply to the same normative structure. America Indians, Foreign nationals, second generation immigrant children and travelers through the country need not, cannot, be expected to comply to standard American behavioral norms. Chaos theory tells us that such diversity is, in fact, technically possible. The operative question then becomes how to implement such policy.

Social control theory thus needs to determine how much uncertainty to accept; if we want a great literature, we need not worry about the precise usage of each word in a poem or story. If we want a good marriage, we need not concern ourselves about the rapid and ever changing flow of unit acts which make up the marriage as social structure. if, too, we want a good and decent society, we must concern ourselves with a set of key parameters which are loosely termed social justice parameters and then stand aside and deal with the occasional loose end. Over control at the personal level does not ensure stability at the social level of system dynamics.

REFERENCES:

Briggs, John and F. David Peat, 1986. Turbulent Mirror, New York: Harper and Row, (1988) and Arun Holden, Chaos, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Gleick, James. 1988. Chaos, New York: Penguin Books.

Mandelbrot, Benoit. 1977. The Fractal Geometry of Nature, New York: Freeman.