004: PARADIGM THEORY: Foundations
of Postmodern Science: 1
Jan. 1994 |
NON-LINEAR SOCIO-DYNAMICS: Explications Implications Applications
A 4-Dimensional Bifurcation Map
Out of the crooked
timber of humanity,
no straight thing was ever made.
...Immanuel
Kant
ABSTRACT |
Ramsey theory, Gestalt Theory and Chaos theory along with insights from anthropology and the sociology of knowledge offer a theory of paradigms which suggest that the knowledge process in science, economics, politics and religion can be oriented in any number of useful ways. The number of possible paradigms depends first upon the number of elements in a set, secondly upon rules of perception used, thirdly upon its geometry in phase space and finally upon partisan human interests. Such a theory of paradigms decenters most of the canons of modern science: linearity, logical consistency and coherence, the method of successive approximations, predictability, replicability, falsifiability as well as the quest for grand unified theory. Elements of Postmodern science are offered in the final section. |
The work of Thomas Kuhn (1962), opened up the knowledge process to
enquiry into the genesis of 'normal' science. Since that foundational work, there has
developed a vast literature in which discussions about paradigms, though valuable and
nuanced, still leaves us with little more than a statement that the route to new
frameworks of human understanding is opened by inconsistencies and inadequacies of
'normal' science to handle all data within its logics. This is perhaps the most valuable
insight from this body of work. However, paradigm theory as Kuhn left it, contained an
element which is most uncongenial to the quest for new frameworks. Kuhn instructed us that
we are slowly moving toward a more 'mature' paradigm that is 'able to guide all of the
research of a group.' 2
Postmodern Understandings of Paradigms 3
A postmodern paradigm of paradigms would suggest that it is not, as Kuhn suggested
(1962:22), that 'more mature' paradigms replace 'immature' paradigms which then subsume
and explain ever more of the data of empiric observation. Rather there are, in the
postmodern view, any number of co-existing paradigms none of which can encompass all of
the data for several reasons. The first and most compelling is that nature and society are
so complex and so richly interconnected that the choice of where the boundaries of theory
are to be set is a matter of research interest and research capacity more than the
underlying ontology at hand. Then too, there is the most inconvenient fact that the very
data used to build theory are, in part, generated by the use of differing paradigms.
John Horgan, Senior Writer for Scientific American, has noted that new experiments
challenge our notions of reality; Photons, neurons, and objects large enough to be 'seen'
appear to lack form until they are observed. Stranger still, observation can alter the
outcome of behavior; what happens depends in part on whether we watch it. The most bizarre
phenomena reported is that the measurement of one entity can affect the form of another
remote entity apparently unconnected to the first (July, 1992:94).
The relationship between object of study and the knowing subject is further confounded in
the case of the many forms of social reality by the fact that all social reality is a
product of a very complex and subtle symbolic interactional process in which social facts
defined as true become true in the consequence of one's belief in them and in the
activities one pursues in consequence of that belief. Though Mead, Cooley, Blumer and
other have given us the basic conceptual tools with which to sort out that reality
creating process still there remains much to do in order to know the points and times at
which human agency may shape the world in which they live and, when and why human agency
is limited in the construction of social reality.
The theoretical point advanced here is that the same point made be made about paradigms;
not only are data, in part created by the research act but paradigms themselves are, in
part, created by the research design. The knowledge process, in its entirely, is a human
product but a human product that is tied to an ontology which has a life of its own. Chaos
theory offers a point of departure for reconsidering the way in which paradigms develop
including the basic question of why they change. I want to begin a dialogue in the
philosophy of science with which to sort out such questions. The first place to start, it
seems to me, is with an understanding of how many paradigms are possible. Ramsey theory
gives us insight into that question.
II. Paradigms and Ramsey Theory.
In 1928, Frank Plumpton Ramsey proved that the number of astrological patterns one can generate depends upon the number of stars one can see. Ramsey theory (Graham and Spencer: 1991) explains how ancient Sumerians could look at the stars and 'see' lions, bulls, bears or scorpions. Traditional interpretations were that some mysterious force or Being generated an ontologically existent constellation and that that constellation influenced the course of real events among humans. Ramsey theory suggests that given a finite number of stars, there is a smaller finite number of constellations possible. Human imagination and human interest focus upon one such set to the exclusion of other such sets. 4
Figure 1 Paradigm Potential
Ramsey numbers are defined as the
smallest number of elements in any system (of stars or people or variables) required such
that two (or more) groups of j members (stars, people or variables) form a complete
pattern. The pentagon (Fig. 2) suggests the ramsey number for three red items and three
blue items is > 5. It is six. The Ramsey number for red four and blue four is shown to
be > 8 in the Octagon. It is 9. 5
Some of the larger implications of Ramsey theory have been noted; Theodore
Motzkin concluded that Ramsey theory implied that complete disorder is impossible (Graham
and Spencer: 112). Another general implication is that, given a system described by 9
variables, there are at least two complete subsidiary patterns one might find; one of
which has three variables and one of which has four variables [R(3,4) = 9]. The choice as
between which of the three sets (the full set or one of the two subsets) to use as the
bases for 'grand unified' theory is a political act.
III. Gestalt Psychology
While Ramsey theory tells us that the number of complete paradigms possible depend upon
the number of events in a set, Gestalt theory teaches us that conception of the whole does
not depend upon the nature or number of the parts. When we look at the skies and see the
big dipper, the notion of a dipper is qualitatively different from and cannot be inferred
from a complete knowledge of stars as stars. Just so, there is no ontological basis in the
nature of points for the concept of a square or in the character of sound waves of a
melody; these conceptual patterns are, in part, a result of human activity.
Gestalt psychology arose out of the work of Max Werthheimer and
others who tried to explain why, when we observe a series of still photographs, we 'see'
motion. This work lead to the idea that perception and conception were a function of the
observing human as well as the observed object; objectivity and subjectivity join to
produce knowledge in a delicate and ever changing intersubjective format. Neutral
observation of a stable underlying ontology, so central to modern science and to the
method of successive approximations is displaced in both natural and social systems. It
takes human labor to 'see' the objects in nature and society. 6
A. For purposes of a postmodern paradigm theory, Gestalt psychology
abstracts a few simple rules (out of all possible rules) of perception, that human beings
have come to use in pattern recognition. Rock and Palmer (1990:89) list the Gestalt 'laws'
of grouping. They include (Fig. 2, below) proximity, similarity, closure, and
continuation. Two new such laws are put forward in their article: region and
connectedness.
B. There is another rule essential to the discussion of chaos theory which follows. It
says that pattern recognition
Figure 2 Paradigms and Patterns
depends upon scale of observation. If we observe the first row in Fig. 2, we can
see either eight separate dots or we can see a line of eight dots depending upon the scale
we choose to take. In the third box, we can either see one set of two black dots, another
set of two white dots then a second set of two black dots and finally a second set of
white dots as, clearly Rock and Palmer wish us to. A less tractable observer might well
change scale and 'see' sets of black and white dots alternately in a continuing line.
C. While the rules above account for structure (most important to the discussion below),
none of the rules mentioned by Rock and Palmer account for conception of motion. If we
were to generate a set of rules of dynamic conception, we could 'see' an ever moving line
of white dots coming into view and moving across a screen to disappear at the end. The
same rule of scale connects dynamics to structure. If we slow the scale of action down far
enough, we get structure; if we speed it up, structure converts into process; if we speed
it up more, we again get enough structure to fuel the conceptualization process.
IV. The Sociology of Knowledge
When we join Ramsey theory with Gestalt psychology, we have a beginning of a theory of
paradigms. Together they tell us how many paradigms we could perceive and how we go
about selecting one subset out of the total set of paradigms we could conceive. In order
to understand the process of subset selection, we have to turn to the sociology of
knowledge; more precisely, to the concepts of culture, socio-linguistics, symbolic
interaction and construction theory, interest theory and stratification theory.
As we deconstruct the process by which paradigm selection is made,
we encounter an ever increasing intersubjectivity between observer and observed. It is
unlikely that physical objects and animate objects in more simple forms of life 'interact'
with their environment to create it but, for social life worlds, intersubjectivity begins
with Gestalt theory and is fleshed out with anthropological insights about language and
cultural themes. 7
A. Culture Complementary to formal and psychological sources of
paradigm identification and selection are cultural imperatives which point a people toward
one paradigm out of an array of paradigms which nature and society present them. The
concept of culture, understood anthropologically, considers a way of life of a
given people. It is the themes of a culture which help pre-decide which aspects of any
given complex of events we will find of interest to us.
If we are an agricultural society, we will be interested in those
features of soil, climate, and crops which support our way of life. Such interests, in
turn, shape the kind of mathematics, genetics, biology and climatology and the knowledge
process generally. Morris Kline (1972), in his magnificent survey of mathematical thought,
helps us understand how numbering systems are formed by human interests and how different
kinds of mathematics arise out of the practical interests of a given socio-cultural way of
life. 8
Kline (p.10 et passim) informs us that Babylonians developed numbers,
geometry, quadratic equations and cube roots to solve problems of land tenure, share in
grain storage, interest rates, requirements for workers on irrigation projects and other
agricultural questions. The work of Kline illuminates the renewed interest in astronomy as
colonial powers sent ships around the world to search for new lands in which to grow
sugar, timber and grain after lands in the near East were denuded and eroded beyond repair
(p. 216 et passim). Columbus and his successors used this new technology to go West or
South rather than East looking for spices and cane since the Mediterrean basin was
dominated by Muslim society.
Cultural themes also provide the metaphors with which ramsey sets are named. Hunting
societies name constellations for the animals important to them. Warlike societies would
use weapons with which to name patterns. Religious societies might well give the stars and
constellations the names of saints. Darwin, living in the same predatory economic system
as Dickens, looked at nature and saw competition and a bloody struggle for existence as
the best way to explain change; Kropotkin living in a much more cooperative social order,
looked at nature and saw mutual aid as a way to explain survival among the species. Nature
and society are variable enough and complex enough to support both paradigms. Had Darwin
looked, he could have found a lot of cooperation in the animal kingdom; had Kropotkin
tried, he could have found enough conflict within and among species to sustain other
paradigms of explanation. Nature is always more complex and contradictory than paradigms
permit.
Given the cultural components to such naming of ramsey sets, one can see that it is a
human poetics rather than ontology which is used in the labelling of paradigms. The naming
of the current epoch in the knowledge process, that of 'modern' science is itself both a
politics and a poetics in which linear models of thinking and organizing are privileged.
If we deconstruct the rise and centering of modern, linear science, we can see that it is
admirably suited to serve the interests of those who prefer to maximize technical
rationality in a system. The essential thing about prediction, from the point of view of
human beings, is that it lends itself to control.
Profit driven systems work best when workers respond mechanically to engineering
specifications; when customers respond linearly to advertisements using depth psychology
and when competitors respond automatically to market demand. Bureaucratic systems work
best when a staff follows policy lain down by management and process clients through the
routines of the system impersonally and objectively. If nonlinearity is to be found in the
market system or the bureau, it is minimized and dismissed as observer error, faulty
research design, poor instrumentation, chance or just bad theory. Chaos theory offers
another understanding of nonlinearity and informs quite a different politics of
management.
B. Socio-linguistics instruct us on the way language helps us view the world in
which we live. Each language system dissects the physical world a bit differently from
other language systems. If we are Eskimo and live within the linguistic framework of that
society, we may invent 30 concepts which guide our conception (and study) of snow; if we
are Arabic and live within the linguistic framework of that society, we may have to import
words with which to refer to snow while we may have 15 concepts about female camels which
help us grasp those aspects of the life cycle and activities in which we are interested
and which are needed to reproduce our camel culture.
It is mode of production, climate, geography, and culture in ever changing variation which
informs our interest in conceptualization linguistic devices. These work within the larger
frameworks of Ramsey theory and Gestalt theory to shape the paradigms of knowledge with
which we dissect nature and society.
In general, the more complex the society, the more concepts we must create to analyze it;
the more variables we can find and the more paradigms we have available to name. Ramsey
theory sets the lower limits for conceptualizing; human interests pick and choose among
the patterns recognized.
Given a society with a complex division of labor, say of advanced industrial Germany, then
it needs a complex speech capacity to function. German has 350,000 or so concepts;
together with a few rules of grammar and syntax, one could build an Ackerman tower of
linguistic statements which exceed the analytic capacity of a computational system larger
than the solar system. Given the variety of languages in human history the set of concepts
is available with which to construct social life worlds becomes infinite while the subset
of possible social life worlds is variable beyond imagination.
Any effort in social science to study such a set of concepts tied to existent social life
worlds and to specify its 'universal laws,' is a most political act. This politics is made
still more intersubjective in that, as the language system expands, it increasingly enters
back into the social life world from which it was taken to shape both physical, natural
and social systems. There can be no theory of lasers until human beings produce lasers.
There can be no theory of bureaucracies until human beings construct and reflect upon what
they have constructed.
C. Construction theory Berger and Luckmann, (1966) instruct us that most if not all
social forms are created by human beings. For social reality at least, there is no
objective social ontology which antedates believing, thinking, wanting, acting human
beings. Symbolic Interaction theory (Mead, [1934] 1972) tells us that all such creation is
a collective process; the self system, the social role, the social formation require at
least two persons. The mother without the child, the teacher without the student, the
doctor without the patient are absurdities. Each child, however young, creates itself as a
son or a daughter and an adult as a parent in response to the presentments of that adult
as parent; the process gains in symmetry as the child grows older but its behavior is
always an essential component in order that this social reality (son/mother) emerge.
In symbolic interactional theory, it is the meaning assigned to an infant in a social
process which 'makes' it a son or daughter rather than its physiology, biology or
genealogy. We construct our children as our kin in a rite of passage in which we name them
one of us and in which we accord them status as an 'us.' We give facticity to the social
object and we terminate its social facticity in another social routine. There is a
physical ontology which answers to the name of the child but that physical reality may or
may not be conceptualized to be kin. If not, then there is no social fact which answers to
the name of a son or daughter apart from the fate of that physical entity. The same is
true of all social facts; marriages are constructed and terminated apart from the
physiological base from which they are made. As Durkheim said, they are reality sui
generis.
Private agreements, property law and the authority of the state are used to construct
complex market systems. Before such activity, capitalism as a system did not exist. Land,
buildings, and labor did exist but were used and understood within other economic
formations: low tech communalism, slavery, feudalism and colonialism. There can be no
'laws' of capitalist formation or market dynamics with first human beings creating
capitalism. The same may be said of patriarchy or socialism. What can also be said is
that, having constructed such systems, they could have been constructed differently with
different organizing principles. In neither class, race or gender is biology or psychology
destiny. It is from its culture and its sociology that any stable and 'objective' laws of
a society derive.
In politics, an embodied political form will tend to produce the kind of behavior which,
empirically, validates the theory attached to it. If authoritarian relations are
prophesied and embodied, leaders act decisively and arbitrarily while subjects tend to be
dependent and uncertain. The observations of Harold Lasswell in the Encyclopedia of
Social Sciences (that one should not 'submit' to democratic paradigms in which the
public is said to be the best judge of its own interests) are sensible and factual in an
elitist political formation. It is ill advised to allow people to think for themselves if
they believe that they are incapable of thinking; if in fact they are ignorant and if in
fact they are excluded from the means to implement policy. That the masses are incompetent
is an empirical truth made true, in part, by the actions of elites. Lasswell, in his
objective reporting of a positive fact, overlooks the prior question about the possibility
of constructing democratic social life worlds in which people are perfectly competent to
judge its own best interests; are well informed about the macro-structural effects and
have effective means to implement policy. In his conflation between that which is and that
which could be, Lasswell moves out of his role as a scientist and becomes an advocate for
that which is.
D. Interest group theory
adds an important twist to Ramsey theory, Gestalt theory and Construction theory. It
tells us that each distinct group occupying a distinct niche in a larger social formation
will have its own special interest in observing and conceptualizing a body of factual
knowledge about given topics.
How each interest group will conceptualize crime will depend upon its own organic
intellectuals. In any given group, all persons having direct participation will have
sufficient understanding to mount an effective truth claim. Each group will have a view of
truth and fact which is fractally true. On a wide range of subjects, there will arise as
many viewpoints as are there groups with distinct interests.
In a society oriented, for example, to private ownership, theft will be understood by
owners as a moral delict while for workers, theft might be understood as a form of
redistributive justice. In a communal society, absent class divisions, theft as a concept
may be difficult to grasp; as the Chief Seattle put it, "Who can own the clouds, the
forests, the rivers or the deer? If there are no 'owners,' there can be no theft. If
everybody owns something, then everybody is entitled to its use and its fruits. Today, we
dispute ownership claims to fetuses, genomes and Antarctica where yesterday they were,
unambiguously, outside the scientific process hence outside the legal process.
E. Power
It is, arguably, the stratification of power and wealth which, in the final analysis,
shapes the selection of paradigms on the road to knowledge. Kings, princes, popes as well
as corporations and state functionaries use power and wealth to sponsor or to repress the
knowledge process. The history of art, religion, music, science, politics and philosophy
is replete with stories of repression and encouragement of paradigms. Today, American
universities are caught up in angry debate over the political correctness of literary,
artistic, dramatic and aesthetic standards. The classicists offer a solid set of standards
for judging 'great' works of art and music while the postmodernists argue that such
standards privilege the culture of Western Europe at the expense of feminist, Asian,
African or Latin American art forms. In sociology, the same controversy is found over
feminist sociology, white sociology, and newtonian models of science.
Social psychological and political dynamics of political selection, celebration and
repression of paradigms vary from the most subtle (a way of seeing is a way of not
seeing), to the most direct and brutal. Galileo was forced to recant, Bruno was burned at
the stake, Marx was pushed from country to country by police. Two Maryknoll nuns, a
Catholic Bishop and six Jesuit priests were murdered in Central America when they urged a
Liberation theology in place of orthodox Catholic theology; the victims of such repression
came up with paradigms of understanding which displeased a powerful interest group but
tended to serve the interests of others with whom they were more connected. After much
murder, torture, and intimidation, the views of the more powerful group tend to be
accepted as official truth. The self-fulfilling prophecy has much help from guns, clubs,
and fists in premodern societies. It has more help from depth psychology, mass media,
pageant and parade in civilized societies.
For most paradigm selection, the dynamics of paradigm selection and support in that self
generating truth process are very complex, however the garrison state looks toward one set
of intellectuals; the welfare state another set and the theocracy still another set. Each
set of intellectuals comprise a fairly closed knowledge domain, of which the test of
membership is success grasp and mastery of the essential ideas of that domain.
If an elite is interested in prediction and control, then a
paradigm that points toward linear dynamics; formal theories and cybernetic systems is
preferred. If an elite is interested in change, variety and surprise then a knowledge
paradigm that points toward non-linear dynamics, bifurcations, strange attractors, chaos
and catastrophe is the stuff upon which science and the knowledge process are built. 9
V.
CHAOS AND MODERN SCIENCE PARADIGMS
Since Newton published his laws of motion in the late 1600s, the
'modern' scientific paradigm which has shaped the knowledge process has assumed a
mechanistic set of coherently connected laws which mirror reality with precision. If we
observe the dynamics of most systems in nature and society, we find but few systems which
behave with the precision that Newton, LaPlace, Hawking and Penrose prefer and which
Comte, Spencer, Durkheim and, arguably, Marx searched. Nonlinear dynamics and chaotic
transformations are the most commonly observed phenomena. These findings do not discredit
the modern science paradigm so much as expand the knowledge process to include nonlinear
paradigms. 10
Theories of Everything In
1988, the University of Glasgow invited John Barrow to give a series of lectures on the
scope and structure of scientific thought. Barrow gave thought to the things which limit
and distort the knowledge process in the quest for universal knowledge. In passing, much
of what he said is valid and limits the knowledge process in such a way as to preclude
sure and certain knowledge. But there is another limitation to which Chaos theory speaks.
That is the nature of the world itself more so than the nature of the observer of the
world itself.
The essential contribution which Chaos theory makes to paradigm theory is that it
describes an ontology at once rich and varied yet patterned and familiar. The dynamics
uncovered by Chaos research in a wide variety of natural and social systems are
sufficiently complex to harbor any number of theories, each of which is, in the chaos
paradigm, fractally valid.
A. Chaos Theory and Modern Science Assumptions Roger Penrose (1989:152)
tells us that theories attain an accuracy of 1014 parts are superb while less
accurate theories are either useful or tentative. The operative point which Penrose makes
is that useful theories may be raised to 'superb' category given experimental support that
they are precise enough. Chaos theory tells us that accuracy in prediction varies with
region of observation. If one looks at one region in an outcome basin in the study of
gases, liquids, metals or a population of fish, birds or human beings, one might well find
a point attractor or a limit attractor in which prediction is possible (Fig. 3; boxes 1
and 2).
Figure 3 An Outcome field with expanding numbers of basins
However if one examines other attractors in a field of outcomes, predictivity is,
progressively, lost. These other attractors are called 'strange attractors.' It is said to
be an 'attractor' since a system or a set of similar systems tend to take the same path
given similar initial conditions. A strange attractor is strange since a system in a given
dynamical regime may take a similar pathway as do systems with similar initial conditions
but it never takes exactly the same pathway. Causality fades and fails as simple dynamical
regimes transform into more complex.
In portions of a causal basin in which there are two and only two outcomes possible,
causality is fairly tight (Box 2, Figure 3). The geometrical form which describes loose
but still limited dynamics is a strange attractor called a torus. In the case of a fish,
we could see its dynamics take the shape of a torus in its yearly growth cycles. It would
tend to grow at about the same rate in any given day, week, month or year given a steady
supply of food. We can see a torus in a stream of water but we call it a whirlpool. Each
such cycle in the life of a fish or a water molecule is called an iteration. If there are
8n outcome basins, i.e., a field with eight attractors, causality is a bit looser; a fish
or water molecules in a stream could go to eight different semi-stable regions in a
stream.
Figure 4 Cross Section of a Torus Attractor.
Figure 4 depicts a cross section of a torus. There is a central but limited pathway
which any iteration of any given system might take. In a section such an attractor, we can
see that there is no one and only one point which is natural as an endstate.
One can rotate the cross section of the torus mentally and obtain the familiar 'normal
curve.' In this case, the curve would beskewed to the left. The tongue to which the arrow
points constitutes a bifurcation point. It would produce a second geometrical figure
called the Butterfly Attractor. If one were to make a section of it and rotate that
section in one's mind, one would get a bimodal distribution. Each of the dynamic states in
Chaotic systems yields a familiar display but, in such displays, the full range of outcome
states is lost and the dynamical character of all social processes is lost. In such slices
and with such techniques, process is frozen in time and space. Phase-space analysis
restores those dynamics and, in so doing, generates an entirely new way of doing social
research.
In turn, that new way of doing research reopens paradigm theory and informs us that the
ontological field in which natural systems is found is so variable that n number of
paradigmatic fields are possible...when observes the entirety of phase-space including a
fully chaotic field, the number of scientific paradigms available vary with region and
with scale of observation.
Modern science gives preference to stable causal connections and chooses to privilege the
first two states in Figure 4; Chaos theory tells us that stability is lost as bifurcations
unfold. In metallurgy, hydrology, and astronomy, causality opens and closes much like the
smile on a Cheshire cat as bifurcations unfold in phase-space. In some regions of an
outcome basin, prediction is stable (white region in Fig. 4); in other regions, not so
(grey regions).
However, linear systems are inherently unstable since linear feedback explodes into chaos
after the third bifurcation. As positive linear feedback amplifies deviation, there comes
a time when new dynamics emerge (Thom, 1974; Feigenbaum, 1978). After four bifurcations
(far right of the outcome basin) orderly causality and 'superb' predictability occupy but
a small portion of phase space.
Nonlinear systems can be very stable even if not tractable to linear quantification.
Absent linearity, no amount of research can 'raise' some theories to the superb category
yet such findings are valid and deserve a place in the knowledge process. The preference
for superb theories over 'weaker' theories is a preference for order (and thus control)
rather than a pursuit of truth.
Modern science presumes that, through the method of successive
approximations, the various disciplines converge upon one and only one superb theory which
is valid for all time to come. 11
Chaos theory instructs us that there are at least four dynamical states (Fig. 4) into
which any system can fall; each state has a differing set of dynamics. If one happens upon
the system in a stable region of an outcome basin, modern science would tend to terminate
the knowledge process as completed. All other system dynamics would register as error,
faulty theory, observer bias, incomplete measurement or inadequate computational
technology.
Modern science tells us to prefer a parsimonious set of parameters over a more complex
set. One uses Ockham's razor to shave parameters down to a manageable set. Chaos theory
tells us that linearity and precision are achieved by the arbitrary exclusion of
parameters which drive a system (Ekeland, 1988:16). Indeed, the bias in analysis is that
it deliberately excludes the full complement of factors which drive really existent
systems.
Modern science tells us that the laws of nature and society fit together coherently. Given
such coherence, one can use Aristotlean logic with which to derive propositions and draw
inferences. Chaos research discredits aristotlean logic for 8n causal basins. Aristotlean
logic excludes middle values in making truth claims. A thing must be true or it must be
false. In 'superb theories,' truth values can be precise to the 1014 place. One
can use Aristotelian logic to make inferences. In nonlinear dynamical states, there are
middle values which makes a truth statement fractally true. Chaos theory tells us that the
exclusion of observed facts which fall between regions in an outcome basin is an arbitrary
act. Binary truth values are thus gained at the expense of fractal truth values.
Modern science sees chaos as a nuisance, an error in research design, an error in
measurement or observer error. Postmodern science sees chaos as an integral feature of
real systems out of which qualitative change emerges.
Chaos Theory and Ramsey theory together suggests and chaos research tends to confirm that
several realities can occupy the same time-space continua. The concept of the soliton
(Briggs and Peat, 1989). In the USA, market dynamics exist side by side with other
economic systems. The separation of market dynamics from other exchange acts within a
social formation is an arbitrary isolation of a basin of very differing economic systems.
Interest group theory helps us understand why societies are called capitalist societies
when most of its economic activity is outside the logics of for-profit market activity.
Parallel economic systems such as crime, state welfare programs, charity, mutual aid
within kinship groupings as well as gray market exchanges are outside the formal logic of
a free market economy but which supplement (and simplify) free market systems. The
boundaries between market driven activity, state welfare, private charity, crime or
kinship aid are connected in the ways suggested by the outcome basin depicted in Fig. 5,
Figure 5 Paradigms and Outcome basins
below. Each peak might represent one such parallel system, the highest and broadest of
which probably would be kinship exchange activity. As the diagram suggests, there are
connections between each system but they are nonlinear. One preserves the integrity of the
free market paradigm by an arbitrary disconnection from other economic paradigms.
One can disentrain such economic systems conceptually and thus make claims of 'profit and
loss' but profit is achieved by transferring costs to other, connected economic systems.
The actual disentrainment of parallel economic systems is much more difficult. Such
systems at the level of social reality is a matter of interest group conflict. Some groups
want to keep the connections visible in order to avoid bearing the full burden of
generating profit while others want to erect boundaries on the systems and avoid all or
part of the costs of construction of other economic systems.
Postmodern paradigm processes thus consist of a scanning, turning, focussing, and encoding
process in which some part of a complex, nonlinear and variously connected contradictory
whole is selected for systematic study, the study of which in turn produces the practical
information needed to reproduce or extend given social life worlds.
VI. ELEMENTS OF A
POSTMODERN PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE
Postmodern philosophy of science concedes only a small special region of natural and
social dynamics to logical positivism and the canons of science which guide it. By itself,
Chaos theory calls such canons into question. Add Ramsey theory, Gestalt theory as well as
insights from the sociology of knowledge and the knowledge process is opened up to
accommodate change, variability and creativity in ways not possible while imprisoned in
the modern paradigm. The next few years will see the knowledge process shaken open,
re-examined and responsibility for the social life worlds in which they live, returned to
human beings as the intersubjective nature of the knowledge process feeds back into all
social sciences including politics, economics and religion.
The utility of quantification, of binary truth statements, of falsification and
replication as well as the venerated scientific method--that of successive approximations
to a final stable theory; all are called into question. All are seen as special to a set
of human interests which lead the knowledge process toward those regions in phase-space in
which order and predictability are found while dismissing those regions in phase-space
where looser, fuzzier, more fractal dynamics are found.
A. Quantification Chaos research reduces the utility of rational (linear) numbering
systems to the knowledge process. Rather it turns to fractals (Mandelbrot, 1977) and
'rubber math' as the measurement tools of choice (Briggs and Peat, 1989:83). This
decenters physical sciences as the 'hard' sciences. Compared to the study of physical
systems, good research in the social sciences poses by far the greater problems for the
knowledge process.
Qualitative research employing the richness of human language as well as qualitative
mathematics can restore to social research the variability, openness, discontinuity and
reversibility of social systems that interval and rational numbering systems and the
preferences for Iron Laws and Formal Theory strip from human interaction.
B. Objectivity Penrose notes that quantum theory questions
the facticity of the object under observation. 12 Some suggest, following Nils Bohr, that
there is no object out there until one undertakes the measurement of it. Prigogine makes a
similar but more comprehensive point when, in his New Delhi Lecture (1982), he quotes
Kothari with approval:
The simple fact is that no measurement, no experiment or
observation is possible without a [paradigm].
1. It is the paradigm which calls forth and limits the data
found; data do not validate paradigms so much as help legitimate them. The objects of
study and thus the data itself within a paradigm are, in part, selected by the paradigm.
Perhaps the most revealing experiment is the well known conundrum of wave versus particle;
when a beam of light (or a beam of electrons) passes through one slit, it behaves as a
particle; when it passes through two slits, it exhibits wave characteristics. The paradigm
one uses to understand the objects of study is a human choice; both observations yield
true statements. 13
2. Construction theory informs us that the objects of social research are
called forth by a self-fulfilling process. Ramsey theory suggests that the universe of
possible social life worlds to be constructed approaches infinity. The universe of
paradigms with which to study social life can be modelled by a mandelbrot fractal with
infinite scale, infinite detail, infinite length and infinite centers.
3. Social science plays a role in the construction of various social forms by limiting
itself to the study of what is at a given time and by preference to those regions of order
within the universe of that which is. Then, reentering the social life world from which it
came, theory becomes part of a self fulfilling prophecy in which power plays a varying
role.
C. Facticity and Validity Chaos research and fractal geometry join with Gestalt
theory and the sociology of knowledge to instruct us that the facticity of any object as
well as the validity any statement which purports to describe its behavior depends upon
the region in phase-space one chooses to study. The geometry of phase space depends, in
turn, upon the number of parameters one selects to guide the search for facts.
Truth is a human artifact; not an impersonal mirroring of nature. More succinctly, in the
postmodern sensibility, epistemology shapes ontology via human practice; some of which
answers to the sociology of fraud, some of which embodies the prophecies contained in its
religious and/or scientific paradigms.
D. Falsification The important thing to note, in terms of
the method of successive approximations, is that with fractal truth values and
fourth-order bifurcations, falsification is lost as an aide to the knowledge process. 14
1. Karl Popper (1965) has made much of falsification, in the logic of
scientific discovery, as a one sided way to zero in on truth statements. Chaos findings
teach us differently. When one obtains contradictory results in two or more observations,
it may be the case that one is sampling differing regions of a fractal basin of outcomes.
It is not the case, in Chaos theory, that if a proposition about the dynamics of a system
is not validated by observation in each and every observation of a system, that the
truth-value of the proposition is null. Two different findings, each incompatible with the
other, may both be valid with a truth-value of close to 1.0 depending upon which region of
phase-space one samples.
2. Paradigms then, do not become mature by means of falsification. Falsification can be a
political act arising from a given practice (informed by human desire and interest and
often power) in which one arbitrarily chooses which region of a basin of outcomes to
reject as abnormal and in which another region is selected as the normal, natural, or
god-given set of outcomes.
3. Given the human role in construction of paradigms and their embodiment in nature and
society, postmodern science ceases to be oriented to falsification and becomes instead,
oriented to a critique of the degree to which human intersubjectivity is successful or
unsuccessful in creating given paradigms.
E. Replicability If one finds a pattern of outcomes in one region of a basin of
outcomes, standard scientific paradigms would insist that the same results be found in
every sector of the basin of outcomes for systems with similar initial conditions.
1. It is an attribute of such nonlinear systems that small differences can produce very
different outcomes in end-states (at any given sector of phase-space). It is an important
consequence of chaotic dynamics that one is unable to predict which small changes will be
absorbed and which will produce large changes; thus, the basin of outcomes of any such
sets of nonlinear social systems will consist of some portion of outcomes that are
expected and some unpredictable region of outcomes that are new and very different (Fig.
4).
2. Ordinarily one explains contradictory findings in terms of deviancy, observer bias,
faulty research design, poor theory, inadequate technology or inept operationalization.
These continue to plague the knowledge process however, Chaos findings would suggest that
the ontology of everyday life is varied enough to produce contradictory findings; the
findings are valid depending upon which sector of a basin of outcomes one happens to
sample.
3. The idea that a paradigm becomes mature through a series of replications in which a
discipline hits upon a region of stable findings which are true for all time and space is
decentered as the mission of the knowledge process. Instead, in postmodern science, a
critique is mounted concerning which, among alternative iterations, attractors and
paradigms is/are most congenial to the human project. A grounding for such transcendent
critique is again, a human project.
F. Successive Approximations The method of successive approximations assumes that
it is possible to zero in on a final set of interconnected, stable and logically coherent
propositions. It assumes that there is, in fact, one set of universal and eternal
propositions which govern all cases of a kind for all time. In modern science, this method
assumes that all systems in nature embody rational, lawlike social processes.
1. Chaos research teaches us that the dynamics of real systems are such that relationships
and endstates vary over a basin of outcomes in phase-space; there is no one stable
end-state to which even the best research methods guide the knowledge process.
2. The method of successive approximations remains useful if one
specifies the attractor and the region of outcome in which one is interested. One can use
Lyapunov number to determine the boundaries of an attractor and thus, have a tool with
which to set a boundary on all the statements made about that region. 15
3. Postmodern science, as practice, may be used to help to move a society
or a natural system toward any given region in phase space but emancipatory knowledge
processes require this choice be a matter of democratic politics.
G. Rationality Rationality is not the essence of science. Chaos research teaches us
that some scientists may choose one region in a fractal field of outcomes in which to work
while another chooses a different region--when their findings are different from or
contradictory to each other, the choice is not as between either paradigm but rather how
useful each finding might be were it to address human concerns.
1. In his New Delhi Lecture, Prigogine noted that both Boltzmann (and his views on
reversibility in the laws of thermodynamics) on the one side and Darwin (and the irreversibility
in his laws of evolution) were both true and contradictory. Prigogine was not the first to
ask how it could be true that all systems tended toward probability and, at the same time,
some systems tended toward irreversibility. Lars Onsager answered the questioned by
postulating temporary order drawn from the partial order in a larger system of disorder.
Prigogine answered it by saying that both processes of disorder and of order were found in
nature. Both won Nobel prizes for their work: Onsager in 1928 and Prigogine in 1977.
2. In social life, the same contrariety is found; if one study reveals the correlates of
crime to be located in personality while another study reveals the correlates of crime to
be found in social variables, it is entirely possible in postmodern science for both to be
(fractally) true. The impact of personality variables may differ in a different political
economies. Poverty can bring out the worse in a person or the best depending upon how
poverty is generated and how it is met. Thus in a competitive, solipsic, and possessive
society, personality factors may have small and variable effect on the forms of crime. In
an egalitarian, sharing, caring society, however poor it might be, psychological variables
may stand out as causal to theft, rape, vandalism or murder.
3. In economics, it is entirely possible for modernization theory, marxist theory and
dependency theory to be 'valid' depending upon which parameters are selected and which
regions of phase space are explored. In criminology, it is possible for a variety of
contradictory theories to be fractally true. Order theories, Racist theories, Conflict
theories, and Control theories each select some band on the spectrum of human interest
upon which to focus research, within which to observe its facts, and from which to form
and test its hypotheses. In postmodern science, it is entirely possible that each such
paradigm has a fractal truth value, the validity of which changes as one moves from region
to region in a basin of facts and as one changes scale of observation and as the dynamics
of the system under study change.
4. There is a meta-rationality possible in nonlinear dynamics. In another place, I have
discussed two levels on which one can cope with nonlinearity in an effective mode. In
brief, it is possible to determine the dynamical key which marks a given nonlinear regime
and use it to stabilize a field. The larger strategy requires that one determine the key
parameters which drive a system (or set of systems) to far from stable dynamics and
institute macro-policy by which to forestall such bifurcations. In none of this is the
kind of rationality informed by consistency, precision and universality to be found. Yet
Chaos can cope with chaos in a loose and variable way.
H. Truth-Values In modern science, the standards of truth center around binary
truth values. In Newton's paradigm, the future was knowable with a truth value of 1.0; if
findings did not confirm previous results, the truth value of a new hypothesis was 0.0. In
a chaotic universe, the truth value of a prediction varies from 0.0 to .999 but is seldom
1.0 (except in the special, temporary and unlikely case of a perfectly stable state point
attractor). Truth-statements in social science are thus fractal.
1. Chaos theory instructs us that there is a fractal basin of outcomes for any given kind
of human behavior (Fig. 3). The truth value of any statement about that behavior depends
upon which region of phase-space one chooses to study. If we find a region in which stable
relations are present, we say we have a valid finding. If we happen upon a region in which
causality is loose, we say that we must reject a hypothesis as false. A better view is
that causality loosens as bifurcations propel a system toward far from stable dynamics
(Feigenbaum: 1978).
For example, if we were to study the outcomes of poverty on Black children in Chicago, we
might be able to come up with truth-values close to 1.0 in that part of a basin of
outcomes in which a limit cycle or torus attractor is found; close enough to lead us to
think that variation is due to observer error or to another, unknown variable. However, if
we expand our research horizon, we might find that the connection between poverty and race
change as economic cycles come and go.
The same is true for the connection between crime and age. If we study only that portion
of phase space in which burglary, theft or robbery occurs, we find a tight connection
between the two variables. If we open up phase space to include the S & L scandal,
stock market fraud, or tax evasion, we find crime crosses all age categories. We are then
left to consider whether crime varies more with social justice than with age, race, or
gender.
2. In the boundaries between torus and strange attractors in a fractal basin of outcomes,
truth values of propositions are very hard to determine. Looking at that region from the
modernist paradigm, we would tend to think that nothing of interest to the knowledge
process was happening. If we look at the geometry of but one stable attractor, we tend to
see order and predictability of the sort we prefer; taken as a whole, the entire basin of
outcomes reveals fractal nature of truth-values since the outcome basin itself is fractal.
I. Parsimony Ekeland (1988:86-87) notes that Mariotte's paradigm with three
parameters is used in most analyses to define the behavior of a gas (temperature, pressure
and volume). He says these variables are well defined only at equilibrium. If we want
accuracy of the sort that Penrose demands for dynamic systems, one needs to use another
paradigm, Boltzmann's, in which 6n variables are used (six variables per
molecule; three of position and three of velocity times the number of molecules). If we
are dealing with 1023 molecules (a reasonable quantity of a gas), we need a
model with 6 x 1023 variables. Which of two paradigms one uses is a human
choice.
In sports, in accounting, in criminology as in physical science, there is no natural end
to the number of parameters one may specify, measure and correlate. Each day, sports
analysts come up with ever new parameters about the game they study: in basketball, one
can program in an infinite number of variables, correlate each in every permutation and
fill in the moments between commercials, action and the next program scheduled. The number
of games won in the last three seconds by three point shots made by point guards is of
keen interest to those who follow Isaiah Thomas or Magic Johnson. In baseball, it might be
the number of games won by left-handed pitchers under lights in open stadia; in football,
it might be the number of times a quarterback has won a game in the last two minutes using
passes to a tight end.
If there is no limit to the variables one can specify, then perfect prediction and perfect
knowledge based upon the complete measurement of all variables is an impossible goal.
Emancipatory postmodern science opens up the research process to include those parameters
of interest to oppressed peoples. Cathleen Armstead and Francesca Cancian (1990) have
assembled a bibliography of such participatory research which serves as a guide to the
specification of such parameters for intersubjective research.
J. Cumulativity The assumption of a neat and ordered connectivity leads modern
science to assume that each experiment at each level of systems organization and
functioning fits into a larger whole. The task of the knowledge process, given such an
assumption is to generate a portrait of the whole in theoretical terms. Each new finding
is presumed to fit into that larger whole and to add a new detail to the larger theory.
Such is not the case in Chaos research. What one finds in one region of phase-space will
be very different from what one finds in another region. What one finds at one magnitude
will have some more or less loose similarity to what one finds at another scale but will
have intractable, unpredictable, inexplicable differences not compatible with the dynamics
in other chaotic regimes.
Thus the idea that one day the knowledge process will end as we fit the last piece into a
grand unified theory encompassing all realities and coherently translatable across domains
by a propositional logical positivism is an authoritarian dream. It is just not on. Nature
is simply too messy and too complex to fit into the neat and tidy boxes of logical
positivism.
K. Intersubjective Methodology The methods of postmodern
science are very different from the methods of modern science. Epistemology and ontology;
knowing and being, come to have, in the postmodern version of the knowledge process, an
interactivity that is not found in modernist worldviews and knowledge processes.
Interactivity means that all truth statements are, in part, constructed by the people who
are the subject of the truth statement. 16
Such an insight means that the mission of the knowledge process in
postmodern science is very different from the mission of the knowledge process in modern
science. In modern science, the mission of the knowledge process was to built a grand
unified theory from which human beings could accommodate themselves when necessary and
with which human beings could fashion a 'Great Instauration' as Francis Bacon put it.
Bacon's Utopia, called the New Atlantis, featured a collegium of scientists, called
Solomon's House who would advise princes and Popes on social policy.
Postmodern philosophy of science offers a much wider and more uncertain set of missions
for the knowledge process. Absolute truth is out; firm and final control of nature and
society is foregone; sure and certain knowledge of everything is abandoned but. But in
exchange, the human hand and the human soul become visible as architect of the very
knowledge process which describes existence. Given the human element in creating the
realities of which we have knowledge, the future is open and it is increasingly amenable
to human agency. Whether that is a cause for optimism or deep despair is also a human
choice. We have it in our power to fashion a society and a knowledge process congenial to
the human project or one in which we are all strangers and enemies each to the other.
L. Deep Structures The ancient polemic between structure and process is, in part,
resolved by an examination of a fractal basin of outcomes. Only process from one iteration
to another is found in real time while fractal structures emerge in phase-space. Structure
emerges ever more clearly and sharply as iterations pile up in phase-space but edges and
openings continue to be fractal at some scales of observation. Another way to put it is
that process trumps structure in real time while, in phase-space, structure consolidates
or loosens depending upon the regions explored in phase-space.
However, the fact that structure is found only in phase-space does
not mean that process is not affected by those same structures. Human conception and human
memory store such structures in speech and in social rules. Thus structure returns from
phase space to shape and reshape human processes to the extent that human insight and
human genius extracts them from the totality of events that suffuse human life. 17
VII. Conclusion The number of research paradigms is a function of
the complexity of the research field we choose to study. Perception of a paradigm is a
function of the rules of observation we use. The conceptualization of research paradigms
is a function of the cultural field in which the scientist works; language and practical
interests preshape the knowledge process and fit it to a given paradigm. The choice of
paradigms is a function of power and social control activities as well.
The complexity and variation of natural and social systems mean
that the ontological firmament which is the topic of scientific research offers an
infinite number of perspectives from which to make truth claims. The facts upon which such
truth claims are founded are themselves human artifacts in that one may choose, for
example, which part of the electro-magnetic spectrum to use to study a physical system and
thus select the nature of the facts which emerge. 18 More than that, there are those who think
that a given feature of natural systems is called forth by the measuring tactics used;
such facts, while part of the ontology 'out there,' have no prior ontological existence
independent of the research act.
Since the dynamics of nature and society are inhospitable to formal axiomatic theory and
logical positivism of modern science, a central implication for the philosophy of science
is that all theories of social behavior have to be nonlinear Change Theories. The quest
for Grand Unified Theory true for all time and space is seen to be, given the structure of
postmodern science, a partisan and fruitless quest for an end to history.
Each field of study in science is a separate paradigm not shaped by the number of
naturally occurring phenomena or by the natural boundaries between fields of study but
rather a function of the changing foci of human interest. Astronomy, Law, religion,
philosophy, and medicine were the earliest 'sciences'. Geology, biology, psychology,
anthropology and sociology were added later. They were developed and began probing for
facts and creating theories as required by practical interests in mining, animal
husbandry, warfare, colonialism and industrial production.
As new social forms and social interests emerge, there will be new sciences to describe
and explain them and in that knowledge process, help such facts to consolidate, change and
expand still newer sciences. There can be no theory of formal organizations without the
human creation of formal organizations. There can be no sociology of disaster until human
technology develops such that humans can generate the technology with which to despoil the
earth, themselves and other societies...and then gauge that damage. By the year, 2100
a.c.e., there will be 10n sciences for every one now absorbing the lives and
genius of its practitioners. Living systems are so complex, so interconnected with each
other and their environment that the number of scientific disciplines possible is limited
only by human imagination and human effort.
Part of the postmodern project in physical as in social science is to emphasize and
explore the human authorship of both reality and theories of reality. It is that very
interactivity between object of knowledge and subject of knowing which means that science,
philosophy, theology and sociology are but different names for different aspects,
different regions of the same knowledge process. The boundaries between social science,
social philosophy and social policy are fractal and everchanging.
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