Table 3 presents the multivariate analysis of factors that are associated with successful assassination outcomes. 

Table 3. Multivariate analysis of factors associated with successful assassination attempts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*sig. at .05

 

    Logistic regression was utilized for the multivariate table.  Assassination attempts that occur in third world countries (B=.329) are 1.39 times more likely to be successful than assassination attempts that take place in first or second world countries.  Despite the higher likelihood, this finding was not significant and cannot be generalized beyond this study.  Assassinations that focus on charismatic individuals (B=1.16) are 3.20 times more likely to result in success than assassinations focused on legitimate or traditional authority figures.  This finding can be generalized beyond this study due to statistical significance.  Assassinations that result in success in countries characterized by minority hostility (B=.515) are 1.67 times more likely to occur than assassinations in countries lacking minority hostility.  This result was not significant, therefore this finding cannot be generalized beyond this study.  Assassinations that result in success that are politically motivated (B=.718) occur 2.05 times more than assassinations that are not politically motivated.    Assassinations that did not yield collateral damage (B=-1.279) resulted in successful outcome 5.26 times more so than assassinations that caused frequent wounding among bystanders.  This finding is significant and can be generalized beyond the scope of this study.

DISCUSSION

     Charismatic figures were hypothesized to be the most successful target of assassination attempts.  This hypothesis held true in the analysis of this study.  The rationale for this hypothesis stems from a charismatic figures ability to generate emotional responses from the group of people they represent.  It was surmised that the high level of emotion yielded from a group by a charismatic leader results in the strength of a challenger group’s actions. be removed, by the termination of the charismatic figure.

     Collateral damage was hypothesized to be negatively associated with successful assassination attempts.  This hypothesis was supported by the data, and was found to be significant.  The reasoning behind this hypothesis is in the assassin’s desire for the target to be terminated.  If the assassin is distracted by bystanders, the target would have a chance to flee the scene, or be protected by their security.  If an assassin is not distracted by bystanders, they are more likely to achieve a successful kill in their target.

     Assassination attempts related to political tension were hypothesized to be more successful than assassinations that are driven by other forms of tension.  There was a higher likelihood of political tension as a motivating factor, however it was not significant. 

     Political tensions may not be as large of an issue as were hypothesized.  Other factors could take precedence over this area (i.e. religiously based motivations, economic issues, racial oppression), driving successful assassination. Success was hypothesized for assassinations occurring in countries characterized by minority hostilities.  Similarly to political tensions, countries with the issue of minority hostility were more common, but not significant.

     First world countries were hypothesized to result in more assassination success than country classifications.  This hypothesis was derived from Turk’s (1982) Political Criminality, which attributes success in assassinations to knowledge and resource.  The hypothesis was based on these points, making the assumption that those with the most knowledge and resources would be members of countries that had high-quality standards of living, first world countries.  .  Assassinations were not more likely to occur in first world countries, and this statistic yielded no significance.  Third world countries were the country status that yielded the most success in assassination outcome.  This finding was surprising when regarded in a perspective that focuses solely on knowledge and resources.  The average member of a third world country typically has limited resources, and limited to no formal education.  Therefore, it would seem that they would have less success in executing a target. .  It could be hypothesized that members of third world countries experience so much hardship that their anger outweighs their disadvantage, resulting in a stronger determination to successfully assassinate their target.  It could also be hypothesized that individuals in a third world country have higher motivation to achieve success in assassination due to their life circumstance.  Members of third world countries have less to lose than individuals in first world countries.  As a result there could be less fear of consequence, resulting in a higher success rate.